Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Yellen stepping down, December rate hike possible

Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen will step down from the board early next year. Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
 
With the end of her tenure as Fed chief coming in February 2018, Janet Yellen has announced she will leave the Federal Reserve board altogether. Her departure marks the end of an era in which unemployment has dropped to a near record low 4.1 percent and millions of jobs have been added in the post-Recession recovery years. She will be replaced by President Trump's new nominee Jerome Powell as chairman of the Fed board.

Meanwhile, Fed leaders indicated this week that another increase to the key central bank interest rate could be coming again in December this year. Board members will likely factor in the November job report, wage gains or losses, consumer spending and other variables before making a decision at their mid-December meeting to raise the benchmark interest rate.

A rate hike would not be a surprise for market investors, as multiple increases were expected throughout 2017. A potential rate hike has already been "priced in" to the markets, so no drastic changes to mortgage rates are anticipated - although nothing is ever certain. Despite 17 million jobs being added to the U.S. economy since 2009, inflation rates remain stubbornly below target, so that is one factor that could impact December rate changes.

Friday, June 9, 2017

Mortgage rates dip amid political uncertainty

Graph shows the rise and fall of mortgage interest rates over the past year.

Over the past two months, interest rates have been slipping downward following a sharp spike in rates after the U.S. election last fall. Some factors at play include the lessening likelihood of Congress passing any tax reform or deregulatory laws by the end of the year, as well as conflicts abroad involving Qatar.

The May jobs report released last week showed less impressive numbers, with a lower than expected 138,000 new jobs added. The number of jobs for March and April also were both adjusted lower than previously announced. Weaker employment numbers put downward pressure on interest rates - a positive for borrowers taking on new credit.

The Fed is holding another meeting next week but is still expected to raise the central interest rate regardless of lower job figures. Fed officials have stated that a couple more rate hikes are likely on the table in 2017, barring any drastic developments. Because the markets have been anticipating a rate hike, it will probably have minimal effect on mortgage interest rates.

Dodd-Frank to be repealed?


While former FBI director James Comey testified before the Senate on Thursday, the House passed a bill to remove much of financial regulation enacted in the Dodd-Frank act. Dodd-Frank was put in place after the economic collapse of 2008 to tighten lending standards and penalize financial institutions taking advantage of consumers with predatory schemes. Backers of the House's bill, called the Financial Choice Act, argue that lending standards have gotten too strict and are hampering growth.

The Financial Choice Act passed the House of Representatives largely on party lines but is not expected to make it through the Senate as proposed. Stay tuned to see what happens.

Saturday, March 4, 2017

With roaring stock market, Fed suggests rate hikes soon

The Dow Jones industrial average broke another record this week, surpassing 21,000 for the first time.


So far, it seems there is no limit to the "Trump effect" on the stock market reaching new heights. Since the November election, the stock market has gained about 10 percent, with the Dow Jones shattering the historic 20,000 point record last month. Then it broke past the 21,000 mark this week following President Trump's speech promising tax repeals, deregulation and more infrastructure spending.

The stock market highs come at a time when the U.S. unemployment rate is low, at 4.8 percent, and wages finally climbed in 2016, pushing inflation rates to rise. These are some of the key economic indicators Federal Reserve officials will weigh to consider adjusting the central bank's interest rate at their mid-March meeting. Based on current data, it is likely Fed officials wil raise the 0.5 percent rate to 0.75 percent, which also influences other interest rates including mortgage rates.

How long will stock market boom continue?


There are still few details known about Trump's economic proposals, and unclear how many policies will garner Congressional support to become law. Thus far the markets are moving based on Trump's pro-business rhetoric coupled with stronger economic activity. The Fed has suggested there may be multiple rate hikes in 2017, but that will depend on continued economic strength.

Currently interest rates remain at relatively low levels by historic standards. If you are looking to purchase a new home or refinance your mortgage, call a Loan Advisor at 877-939-0339.

Monday, January 23, 2017

President Trump moves to suspend FHA insurance premium rate cut

FHA mortgages are backed by the federal government, offering less restrictive credit
and down payment standards to get loan approval. 

In one of his first acts as U.S. president, Donald Trump signed an executive order to suspend a scheduled 0.25 percent rate cut to the FHA program's mortgage insurance premium.

The rate reduction, which would have lowered FHA loan borrowers' mortgage insurance premium rate from 0.85 percent to 0.60 percent, was scheduled to go into effect on Friday. Former President Obama had signed the order earlier this month.

Trump's nominee for the new HUD Secretary, Dr. Ben Carson, has said he will further examine the policy if his nomination is confirmed by the Senate.

Post-election stock rally slows after inauguration


Following Trump's election in November, stocks hit new record highs on expectations that as president he would promote tax cuts, increase infrastructure spending and reduce regulations. The stock rally has slowed in recent weeks, tempered by Trump's recent comments endorsing "protectionist" policies of introducing a border tax on imported goods to the United States.

With more signs of economic strength - lower unemployment rates, increased consumer spending and homebuilder growth - inflation is also on the rise. Some economic analysts are expecting Fed board members to raise central interest rates again by the end of the second quarter of 2017.


Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Fed raises interest rates for first time in a year

This chart shows the change in unemployment rate compared with the number of monthly jobs added 
from 2009 through early 2016. The current unemployment rate has dropped to about 4.6%.
By Ben Moore - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=30968718

The Federal Reserve's open market committee began its much anticipated December meeting Wednesday with some much anticipated news: Yes, committee members unanimously voted to raise the central bank's interest rate by 0.25 percent. This matches the increase made at last December's meeting, which was the benchmark interest rate's first increase in nearly a decade.

Since the election of Donald J. Trump as the U.S. president-elect in November, the stock markets have been rapidly rising following the expectation of pro-growth policies. Trump has indicated he intends to promote corporate tax cuts and increased spending for infrastructure projects, which are projected to boost inflation. The Fed has been seeking higher inflation rates closer to 2 percent before raising interest rates too aggressively - inflation is currently at about 1.5 percent.

Fed expecting more growth, gradual rate increases


Fed officials said they expect to raise interest rates a few more times throughout 2017, dependent on continued economic growth. The national unemployment rate is currently about 4.6 percent and the GDP expanded by about 3.2 percent in the 3rd quarter of 2016.

Mortgage interest rates have been rising since the Nov. 8 election but were not dramatically affected by the Fed's announcement this week since markets have long factored a bump into projections. To learn more about rates available to purchase a home or refinance, contact a Vertex Loan Advisor at 877-939-0339.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Median income shows solid gains, stock markets close higher

U.S. Census bureau data shows median U.S. income gained more than 5 percent in 2015 to about $56,500, as reported at fivethirtyeight.com.

The Census Bureau released some positive economic data earlier this month, finding that the median U.S. income rose to $56,516 in 2015, more than 5 percent higher than a year prior. The bureau also found that the number of Americans living in poverty dropped by 3.5 million, the highest amount reduced since 1968.

These are significant milestones for post-Recession economic progress, as wages have not increased as quickly as the number of jobs added since 2009. This newer income data suggests that wages are finally catching up.

Fed stalls again on rate hike; stocks respond to U.S. presidential debates


A more sluggish August jobs report, however, prevented Federal Reserve members from raising the central bank's benchmark rates at its September meeting once again - there has been no rate hike yet in 2016. To members of the Fed, 151,000 new jobs added in August and a steady unemployment rate at 4.9 percent is acceptable, but not strong enough to validate raising rates yet. The next Fed meeting will be held in December, following the 2016 general election.

Monday night's first U.S. presidential debate proved to be a boon to the stock market, reacting favorably to a perceived debate victory by Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. The former first lady is viewed by stock investors as a more predictable option compared to her Republican opponent, real estate maven Donald Trump. The stock markets will likely see more fluctuation leading up to the election in early November.

Friday, August 12, 2016

July consumer spending cools, stalling chance of rate hike

Sporting goods retailer Sports Authority, headquartered in Englewood, Co., closed its last standing stores in July.

Oil and gas profits down, online spending up


Retail sales across the U.S. remained flat in July, suggesting that Federal Open Market Committee members will refrain from raising the central bank's interest rates for some time until more tangible growth is seen.

Lower gasoline prices in July were one reason for the tepid sales following stronger growth in June. Cheaper gas did boost car sales, which may have pulled consumers away from spending on other products.

Another area of strength was online shopping, while brick and mortar stores struggled. Consumers are increasingly spending more online than in department stores, as retailer Macy's slashes its number of stores. Locally in Colorado, sporting goods powerhouse (and namesake of the Denver Broncos' stadium) Sports Authority shuttered its last stores nationwide in July after filing Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

The coming weeks and months will tell whether July was an anomaly in spending - especially following several reports of solid jobs data - or if there is a larger American spending shortage. The U.S. dollar continues to stay strong compared with other currencies, also helping to temper inflation.

As long as consumer spending is stunted and inflation is well under the benchmark of 2 percent, most economic analysts expect no significant change in interest rates, currently at near all-time lows.