Playing the Federal Reserve guessing game

Fed officials to decide next week if rates will rise yet

 

 

This chart shows that the core inflation rate has remained fairly flat at about 1.3%, but energy prices
have tanked by nearly 20% as the clear outlier.

Less than a week out from the Federal Reserve's much anticipated September meeting, economists and analysts are more conflicted than ever about whether they will vote to raise interest rates, and should they?

The Fed has kept central interest rates close to zero since December 2008, when they were lowered to help stimulate economic growth and recover from the recession. Nearly seven years later, with unemployment just above five percent nationwide, many feel it is time to start pushing interest rates upward again.

However, there is plenty of disagreement over whether a rate hike will happen following the Fed's meeting next week or later in the year - and whether the economy can sustain a rate increase. The stock markets have endured a roller coaster in the past month leading up to this announcement.

There are many different factors that define what economic "success" look like, including unemployment rates, GDP growth, currency strength and inflation. The latter category - inflation - has been a key area Fed officials have been watching and which hasn't flourished at the target goal of 2 percent growth this year. This is one reason a rate hike may be put on hold for now - then again, maybe not.

For current statistics and charts mapping a variety of different economic barometers, visit the Financial Times' U.S. economy page here: http://ig.ft.com/sites/us/economic-dashboard/